ประกาศข่าวแผ่นดินไหว(&การคาดการณ์)

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="600" align="center" border="0" bordercolor="#669933" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#669933"><td width="130" nowrap="nowrap">วัน-เวลา</td> <td width="40" nowrap="nowrap">ขนาด</td> <td width="50" nowrap="nowrap">lat</td> <td width="50" nowrap="nowrap">long</td> <td width="120" nowrap="nowrap">บริเวณที่เกิด</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">ข้อมูลอื่นๆ</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td valign="top">2553-09-06 11:13:11</td> <td valign="top">3.8</td> <td valign="top">21.00</td> <td valign="top">102.38</td> <td valign="top">ประเทศลาว</td> <td valign="top"> - ทางทิศตะวันตกเฉียงเหนือ อ.เวียงแก่น จ.เชียงราย ประมาณ 218 กม.</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><th align="center">MAG </th> <th align="center">UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s </th> <th align="center">LAT
deg </th> <th align="center">LON
deg </th> <th align="center">DEPTH
km </th> <th> Region</th> </tr> <tr><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">MAP</td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap"> 6.2 </td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">2010/09/08 11:37:39 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> -20.699 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 169.810 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 54.1 </td><td valign="top"> VANUATU</td></tr></tbody></table>
10-degree Map Centered at 20°S,170°E

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The GOES X-ray Flux plot contains 5 minute averages of solar X-ray output in the 1-8 Angstrom (0.1-0.8 nm) and 0.5-4.0 Angstrom (0.05-0.4 nm) passbands. Data from the SWPC Primay GOES X-ray satellite is shown. As of Feb 2008, no Secondary GOES X-ray satellite data is available. Some data dropouts will occur during satellite eclipses.
Other plots of interest: A black background version of this plot; GOES 1-min X-rays; SWPC Real-time Monitors.
SWPC X-ray alerts are issued at the M5 (5x10E-5 Watts/m2) and X1 (1x10E-4 Watts/m2) levels, based upon 1-minute data. Large X-ray bursts cause short wave fades for HF propagation paths through the sunlit hemisphere. Some large flares are accompanied by strong solar radio bursts that may interfere with satellite downlinks.
This page updates dynamically every 5 minutes.
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NOAA / Space Weather Prediction Center
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3-day GOES X-ray Flux Monitor

 

<table border="1" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td width="505" background="graphics/solarback2.jpg">
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2010 Sep 07 2201 UTC Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2010 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 1105 (N19W77) produced a B4/Sf flare on 07/0528Z. An 11 degree filament near N11E19 disappeared between 07/1359-1439Z. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class x-ray event on days one and two (08-09 September). Solar activity is expected to be very low on day three (10 September) as Region 1105 (N19W77) rotates off the visible disk. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. An isolated active period occurred between 07/0900-1200Z. Solar wind velocity, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, indicated an increase to approximately 500 km/s during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active periods during days one and two (08-09 September), due to enhanced solar wind velocity. Day three (10 September) is expected to be quiet as the solar wind speed is forecast to subside. </pre> [Latest Report] </td></tr></tbody></table>

 

7.0 Quake near Christchurch, New Zealand



download large image (4 MB, JPEG) acquired September 3 - 6, 2010

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Residents of Christchurch, New Zealand and the surrounding communities were rattled awake at 4:35 a.m. on September 4, 2010, when a magnitude 7.0 earthquake shook the region. As this map shows, the quake was centered about 45 kilometers (30 miles) west of Christchurch. Made from data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, the map illustrates how geologic activity shaped the region in the past and why the current geology makes Christchurch vulnerable to earthquake damage.
New Zealand sits directly on top of the boundary between the Pacific and Australian tectonic plates. The movement of the two plates directly shapes New Zealand’s very active geology. The two plates slip past each other in the South Island, creating the Alpine Fault. Over time, the motion has built the Southern Alps. The uplift in the mountains makes it easy for geologists to identify the Alpine Fault.
The September 4 earthquake, however, did not occur on the Alpine Fault. It happened along an east-west running fault on the Canterbury Plains that had not been identified before. Several faults are scattered across New Zealand’s South Island, and all are associated with the motion of the two tectonic plates. The faults are identifiable by the way they deform the ground. The fault responsible for the September 4 earthquake had not been mapped because it was buried under the Canterbury Plains.
As this image illustrates, the Canterbury Plains are flat plains between the Southern Alps and the Pacific Ocean. They were created as rivers running out of the mountains deposited gravel and sand at the end of the last ice age, about 16,000 years ago. The deposits buried any sign of geologic activity, effectively hiding faults on the plain.
The gravel deposits that made the Canterbury Plains also made the September 4 earthquake more destructive than it might otherwise have been. The gravel transmits energy, making the ground shake strongly far from the center of the quake. It is as if the Canterbury Plains were made of gelatin.
The gravel and sand soil of the alluvial plain is also very prone to liquefaction, meaning that the soil acts like a liquid during the quake. The shaking re-arranges the gravel, compressing it. The compression causes the surface to sink. Water in the soil is pushed out by the compression, creating fountains and mud and sand volcanoes. Several such events were reported in and around Christchurch on September 4.

1. References
2. Environment Canterbury. The solid facts on Christchurch liquefaction. Accessed September 7, 2010.
3. GeoNet. (2010, September 7). Darfield earthquake damages Canterbury. Earthquake Commission and GNS Science. Accessed September 7, 2010.
4. GNS Science. (2010, September 6). Canterbury fault had not ruptured for at least 16,000 years. Accessed September 7, 2010.
5. Rowan, C. (2010, September 6). Tectonics of the M7 earthquake near Christchurch, New Zealand. Highly Allochthonous. Accessed September 7, 2010.
6. Smith. E. (2010, September 6). Professor Euan Smith on lessons from the quake. Science Media Center (New Zealand). Accessed September 7, 2010.
7. United States Geological Survey. (2010, September 7). Magnitude 7.0 – South Island of New Zealand. Accessed September 7, 2010.
8. Winter, D. (2010, September 5). What happened under Canterbury yesterday morning. the atavism, SciBlogs. Accessed September 7, 2010.

NASA Earth Observatory image created by Jesse Allen, using earthquake and plate tectonics data from the USGS Earthquake Hazard Program, elevation data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) courtesy of the University of Maryland’s Global Land Cover Facility, and and ocean bathymetry data from the British Oceanogprahic Data Centre’s (BODC) General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO). Caption by Holli Riebeek.
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<table width="600" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#669933"><td width="130" nowrap="nowrap">วัน-เวลา</td> <td width="40" nowrap="nowrap">ขนาด</td> <td width="50" nowrap="nowrap">lat</td> <td width="50" nowrap="nowrap">long</td> <td width="120" nowrap="nowrap">บริเวณที่เกิด</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">ข้อมูลอื่นๆ</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td valign="top">2553-09-08 15:57:47</td> <td valign="top">1.8</td> <td valign="top">7.86</td> <td valign="top">99.50</td> <td valign="top">ต.บางดี อ.ห้วยยอด จ.ตรัง</td> <td valign="top"> - </td></tr></tbody></table>

 

<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><th align="center">MAG </th> <th align="center">UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s </th> <th align="center">LAT
deg </th> <th align="center">LON
deg </th> <th align="center">DEPTH
km </th> <th> Region</th> </tr> <tr><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">MAP</td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap"> 5.4 </td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">2010/09/09 07:42:37 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> -6.006 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 125.842 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">517.4 </td><td valign="top"> BANDA SEA</td></tr> <tr><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">MAP</td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap"> 6.1 </td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">2010/09/09 07:28:02 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> -37.005 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> -73.368 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 17.6 </td><td valign="top"> OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE</td></tr></tbody></table>
10-degree Map Centered at 35°S,75°W

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กราฟดูแปลกๆ มาก



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EARTH DODGES ANOTHER BULLET: Just as sunspot 1105 was turning away from Earth on Sept. 8th, the active region erupted, producing a C3-class solar flare (peak @ 2330 UT) and a fantastic prominence. Here is a snapshot from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:


เกิดเมื่อวันที่ 8 กันยา เวลา 11.05 ประมาณหนึ่งทุ่มเมืองไทย

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The eruption also hurled a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) into space: SOHO movie. The expanding cloud is heading into a part of the solar system not currently occupied by any planet--it's going to miss everything, including Earth. If such a CME did hit Earth's magnetic field, it would probably trigger strong geomagnetic storms. Maybe next time...


การระเบิดนี้พุ่งลูกไฟสว่าง (CME) ไปยังอวกาศ
เปลวไฟพุ่งไปยังระบบสุริยะ แต่ว่าตอนนี้ยังไม่ได้ไปที่ดาวไหน
มันจะไม่ไปถูกดาวไหนเลย รวมทั้งโลกเรา
ถ้า CME แบบนี้โดนสนามแม่เหล็กโลก มันก็จะทำให้เกิดพายุแม่เหล็กอย่างแรง
บางทีอาจครั้งหน้า....แป่ว

 

CME 9 Sept 10

 

<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><th align="center">MAG </th> <th align="center">UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s </th> <th align="center">LAT
deg </th> <th align="center">LON
deg </th> <th align="center">DEPTH
km </th> <th> Region</th> </tr> <tr><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">MAP</td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap"> 5.4 </td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">2010/09/11 11:43:09 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 7.790 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 94.074 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 10.0 </td><td valign="top"> NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION</td></tr></tbody></table>
10-degree Map Centered at 10°N,95°E

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<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><th align="center">MAG </th> <th align="center">UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s </th> <th align="center">LAT
deg </th> <th align="center">LON
deg </th> <th align="center">DEPTH
km </th> <th> Region</th> </tr> <tr><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">MAP</td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap"> 5.4 </td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">2010/09/11 11:43:09 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 7.790 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 94.074 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 10.0 </td><td valign="top"> NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION</td></tr> <tr><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">MAP</td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap"> 4.9 </td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">2010/09/11 11:32:41 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> -19.832 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 66.871 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 10.0 </td><td valign="top"> MAURITIUS - REUNION REGION</td></tr></tbody></table>
10-degree Map Centered at 20°S,65°E

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Eastern Limb
09/11/2010 by Kevin VE3EN at 01:30
Comment on Message Board
Eastern Limb Sunspot -Old region 1100 is now rotating back into view on the eastern limb. The solar X-Ray background levels have increased and there will be a chance for B-Class flares and perhaps a C-Class event.


New Sunspot captured by SDO (Friday)

Eastern Limb (Friday)


<hr>
<table border="1" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td width="505" background="graphics/solarback2.jpg">
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2010 Sep 10 2201 UTC Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2010 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. An area of enhanced plage and surging was observed on the east limb near S20. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (11 - 13 September) due to a sequence of small, recurrent coronal holes that are forecasted to become geoeffective. Isolated active periods are possible on 12 - 13 September. [Latest Report] </td></tr></tbody></table>

 

11 11:11:11

<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">MAP</td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap"> 4.5 </td><td valign="top" align="center" nowrap="nowrap">2010/09/11 11:11:11 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 22.134 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> 143.195 </td><td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">163.8 </td><td valign="top"> VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="600"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#669933"><td nowrap="nowrap" width="130">วัน-เวลา</td> <td nowrap="nowrap" width="40">ขนาด</td> <td nowrap="nowrap" width="50">lat</td> <td nowrap="nowrap" width="50">long</td> <td nowrap="nowrap" width="120">บริเวณที่เกิด</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">ข้อมูลอื่นๆ</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"> <td valign="top">2553-09-13 04:33:10</td> <td valign="top">2.4</td> <td valign="top">20.63</td> <td valign="top">99.63</td> <td valign="top">ประเทศพม่า</td> <td valign="top"> - ทางทิศตะวันตกเฉียงเหนือของ อ.แม่สาย จ.เชียงราย ประมาณ 33 กม.</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><th align="center">MAG </th> <th align="center">UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s </th> <th align="center">LAT
deg </th> <th align="center">LON
deg </th> <th align="center">DEPTH
km </th> <th> Region</th> </tr> <tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="center" valign="top">MAP</td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="center" valign="top"> 4.6 </td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="center" valign="top">2010/09/13 01:35:24 </td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="right" valign="top"> 17.108 </td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="right" valign="top"> 40.596 </td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="right" valign="top"> 10.0 </td><td valign="top"> RED SEA</td></tr></tbody></table>
10-degree Map Centered at 15°N,40°E

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<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><th align="center">MAG </th> <th align="center">UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s </th> <th align="center">LAT
deg </th> <th align="center">LON
deg </th> <th align="center">DEPTH
km </th> <th> Region</th> </tr> <tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="center" valign="top">MAP</td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="center" valign="top"> 5.8 </td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="center" valign="top">2010/09/13 05:47:49 </td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="right" valign="top"> 41.523 </td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="right" valign="top"> 142.037 </td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="right" valign="top"> 59.5 </td><td valign="top"> HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION</td></tr></tbody></table>
10-degree Map Centered at 40°N,140°E

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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td valign="top"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="center" valign="top" width="30">


</td> <td valign="top" width="100%"> Green Earthquake Alert Japan</td> <td valign="top"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Summary

On 9/13/2010 5:47:49 AM UTC (about 15:15h local time) an earthquake of magnitude 5.8 occurred in the unpopulated region of Hokkaido in Japan. The earthquake happened 133km from Aomori. The nearest populated places are: [None]. The closest civilian airport is Misawa Naf (107km).
Potentially affected critical infrastructure:

• Nuclear plants: FUKUSHIMA-DAIICHI (464km), FUKUSHIMA-DAINI (475km), HIGASHI DORI (68km), ONAGAWA (349km), TOMARI (212km)
• Hydrodams: [None]
• Airports: Sapporo-new Chitose (144km), Hakodate (107km), Sappora / Chitose (147km), Misawa Naf (107km), Hachinohe (117km)
• Ports: [None]

Based on an automated impact model, this earthquake, which occurred in a region with low vulnerability to natural disasters, has potentially a low humanitarian impact.
Whether international humanitarian aid is needed must be decided by an expert.
<table><tbody><tr><td>Event Date Univ. Time: </td><td>Mon, 9/13/2010 05:47 UTC</td></tr> <tr><td>European Time of the event: </td><td>Mon, 9/13/2010 07:47 CEST (Brussels, Paris, Rome)</td></tr> <tr><td>East America Time of the event: </td><td>Mon, 9/13/2010 00:47 EST (New York, Washington)</td></tr> <tr><td>West America Time of the event: </td><td>Sun, 9/12/2010 21:47 PST (San Francisco, Los Angeles)</td></tr> <tr><td>East Asia Time of the event: </td><td>Mon, 9/13/2010 14:47 JTI (Tokyo)</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2"> </td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">This email report was automatically created by a computer at: 9/13/2010 6:21:39 AM UTC (33 minutes after the event)</td></tr> </tbody></table> See the GDACS website for live news coverage (including OCHA Situation Reports), the full earthquake report .
For information on emergency response, please consult the GDACS Virtual OSOCC.

Earthquake Event

Characteristics

• Source: World Data Centre for Seismology, Denver (NEIC) M
• Magnitude: 5.8 M
• Depth: 59.5 km
• Location (Lat/Long): 41.5228 | 142.0373
• Country: Japan
• Province:
• Region: Hokkaido
• UTC/GMT (Greenwich time): 9/13/2010 5:47:49 AM
• Estimated local solar time: 9/13/2010 3:15:58 PM

Population Density near epicenter (people/km²). Image area: 6x4 decimal degrees (approx. 650x450km2).
Earthquake Impact Details

Potentially affected People

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="1" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <th colspan="3">

Population Data​

</th> </tr> <tr> <th>Radius (km)</th> <th>Population</th> <th>Density (people/km?)</th> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align: right;">1</td> <td style="text-align: right;">0 </td> <td style="text-align: right;">0 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align: right;">2</td> <td style="text-align: right;">0 </td> <td style="text-align: right;">0 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align: right;">5</td> <td style="text-align: right;">0 </td> <td style="text-align: right;">0 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align: right;">10</td> <td style="text-align: right;">0 </td> <td style="text-align: right;">0 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align: right;">20</td> <td style="text-align: right;">0 </td> <td style="text-align: right;">0 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align: right;">50</td> <td style="text-align: right;">0 </td> <td style="text-align: right;">0 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align: right;">100</td> <td style="text-align: right;">34383 </td> <td style="text-align: right;">1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align: right;">200</td> <td style="text-align: right;">4617851 </td> <td style="text-align: right;">36 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> The population in the area of this earthquake is 0 people/km?.
The earthquake occurred at 15h local time. At this time a day, more people are at work and therefore more vulnerable to collapsing office buildings. During traffic hours, people can be affected by collapsing bridges and other road infrastructure.
Resilience and Vulnerability

Resilience is the capacity of the population to cope with a hazard. Since much of investments in earthquake preparedness and available funds for quick response is related to household income, the GDP per capita can be used as a rough indicator of resilience.
Japan has a GDP per capita of 42317 PPP$ (Parity Purchasing Power Dollar, about 1 Euro) and is therefore part of the high level income countries. Therefore, the earthquake happened in an area of high resilience.
Based on the combination of 9 indicators, ECHO attributes Japan a low vulnerability.
Secondary effects

Probability of secondary effects:

• Landslides: The maximum slope in the area of the earthquake is 16.849% and the maximum altitude is 403 m. Since this is a low slope, the risk of earthquake induced landslides is low. Note, however, that the slope data is not reliable on a local scale, while landslides depend very much on local topography, soil and meteorological conditions.
• Nuclear power plants: The following nuclear installations are near the epicenter: FUKUSHIMA-DAIICHI (464km), FUKUSHIMA-DAINI (475km), HIGASHI DORI (68km), ONAGAWA (349km), TOMARI (212km)
• Hydrodams: There are no hydrodam facilities nearby the epicenter.
• Tsunami: No tsunami risk.